Stories tagged with "climate change"
IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
Posted by Luis de Sousa on December 2, 2008 - 9:25am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: carbon dioxide, climate change, global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, iea, ipcc, magicc, original, urr, weo 2008 [list all tags]
Report authors: Luís de Sousa and Euan Mearns
Part 3 of IEA WEO 2008 analyzes the expected impact of fossil fuel combustion upon climate change.
Page 382: As emissions of greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere faster than natural processes can remove them, their concentrations rise. The Reference Scenario puts us on a path to doubling the aggregate concentration in CO2 equivalent terms by the end of this century, entailing an eventual global average temperature increase up to 6 ºC.
Rather surprisingly, IEA WEO 2008 does not provide any data on fossil fuel reserves and production forecasts to 2100 to back up this claim. Instead, it chooses to rely upon fossil fuel reserve figures underlying the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. Furthermore, using MAGICC (climate temperature model), and the default climate sensitivity constants, we are unable to reproduce the outcome of as much as a 6 ºC increase.

Using a CO2 emissions scenario based on our 2008 Olduvai Assessment combined with MAGICC, we estimate that global average temperatures may peak at around 1.6ºC above 1990 values toward the end of this century. Other climate models may produce temperature outcomes higher or lower than this.
The IEA WEO 2008: Will coal usage be phased out?
Posted by Rembrandt on November 25, 2008 - 9:39am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: climate change, coal demand, iea, scenarios, weo 2008 [list all tags]

In this post I summarize the climate policy scenarios of the World Energy Outlook 2008 in which coal usage is stabilized and ultimately phased out. A scenario that would render the question of coal availability useless if it becomes reality. According to the IEA a combination of energy saving policies, a large expansion of Nuclear and Renewable energy, as well as a large scale implementation of carbon capture and storage at coal and gas power plants are necessary to achieve stabilization of CO2 in the atmosphere between 450 and 550 parts per million, and the ultimate phase out of coal. The question of coal availability will be analyzed in a follow up post.
Breaking News: EPA Ruling - Coal Plants Must Limit CO2?
Posted by Nate Hagens on November 13, 2008 - 5:37pm
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: climate change, coal, energy cost, environment, epa, sequestration, sierra club, sustainability [list all tags]
Tomorrow we continue looking at the IEA WEO 2008. Tonight there is a press release by the Sierra Club. (Hat tip Jerome)
In a move that signals the start of the our clean energy future, the Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Appeals Board (EAB) ruled today EPA had no valid reason for refusing to limit from new coal-fired power plants the carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming. The decision means that all new and proposed coal plants nationwide must go back and address their carbon dioxide emissions.
The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy
Posted by Euan Mearns on November 3, 2008 - 9:25am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: bio fuel, ccs, climate change, credit, deflation, einstein, energy efficiency, energy poverty, eroei, gdp, hydrogen, inflation, ipcc, lia, olduvai, opec, original, production decline, united kingdom [list all tags]

When my talk to the Royal Society of Chemists was first arranged this summer, oil cost over $130 per barrel, and we wondered where the price would be in October. Since then much has happened. The credit expansion bubble was pricked in part by inflation stemming from high energy prices, and the global banking system is teetering on the brink of collapse, reprieved only by the spread of social ownership throughout the OECD.
ASPO-USA Sacramento - a Comment
Posted by Heading Out on October 5, 2008 - 9:50am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, climate change, coal, ihs energy, natural gas, original, peak oil [list all tags]
This is the post where I try and draw my own conclusions from the Conference. And not recognizing many of the papers in this does not mean that they weren’t important, but rather that from my own perspective that this is what I got most from.
The recurrent word that cropped up, again and again, was Scale. It was an attempt by the speakers to try and convey to their audience the size of the problem that is coming at us, increasingly rapidly. That one word encapsulates the difference between those who talk of the world energy problem in Quads (quadrillion Btu’s), as opposed to those that talk of the solution in terms of kilowatts and Megawatts. (The handy Dashboard on my Mac tells me that a Megawatt is 56,869 Btus/min. A Quad is 1,000,000,000,000,000 Btu.) The current shortages of gasoline are largely brought about by a transient closure of refineries that affects around 1 mbd of oil supply. The time is not far distant when such shortages will become more regular as we compete for supply in a more competitive global market.
The tipping point that seemed still a comfortable distance away three years ago when the American ASPO meetings began in Denver, is now just about here. And the solutions that have been discussed do not approach, as yet, the millions of barrels a day (mbd) of fuel replacement that we may need before long. At the same time, to return to the theme of my own paper, we do not have the educated human resource that we need. Data from my Dean of Enrollment shows that ACT report national high school student interest in engineering was at 14% in 1982. By 1992 it had dropped to 9%. By 2005 it was down to 5%, and has fallen below that since.
Letter to Garnaut: Implications of Oil Production Decline
Posted by Phil Hart on September 30, 2008 - 6:00pm in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: climate change, garnaut, original [list all tags]
This is an open letter from Stuart McCarthy of ASPO Australia in Brisbane to Professor Ross Garnaut, who is conducting a public review "to examine the impacts, challenges and opportunities of climate change for Australia".
Dear Professor Garnaut,
Implications of Oil Production Decline Forecasts for Copenhagen 2009
Thank you for providing the opportunity for comment on the Review following the release of your Targets and Trajectories Supplementary Draft Report. ASPO-Australia has followed the Review with interest as oil depletion is very much the ‘other side of the coin’ regarding anthropogenic climate change.
We are deeply concerned that your Draft Report explicitly rejects the notion that oil depletion will constrain economic growth within the next 50 years despite very strong evidence to the contrary. In our view the resulting analysis, conclusions and policy recommendations are flawed and will probably exacerbate the climate change mitigation problem.
Figure 1. Colin Campbell/ASPO World Production Profile, Oil and Gas Liquids, 2007 Scenario
Day 3 at the ASPO-USA meeting
Posted by Heading Out on September 26, 2008 - 9:05am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ccs, climate change, coal-to-liquids, igcc, original [list all tags]
Day three of the ASPO-USA Conference in Sacramento was focused on where we go from here with fuels other than oil. It began with a session on coal and natural gas reserves and the potential of biofuels. There was considerable information on each of the slides that each of he presenters provided, and so I encourage you to go and look at the presentations which should be up soon on the ASPO site.
David Hughes had the first slot, and talked of the issues that are raised by coal consumption. David began by contrasting a quote by Emerson that
Coal is a portable climate. It carries the heat of the tropics to Labrador and the polar circle; and it is the means of transporting itself whithersoever it is wanted. Watt and Stephenson whispered in the ear of mankind their secret, that a half-ounce of coal will draw two tons a mile, and coal carries coal, by rail and by boat, to make Canada as warm as Calcutta, and with its comfort brings its industrial power.
with the more recent pronouncements of James Hansen that coal is the enemy of the human race.
Solving Climate Change without Pain
Posted by Big Gav on September 24, 2008 - 5:42am in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: australia, climate change, garry glazebrook, global warming, infrastructure, investment, original [list all tags]
This is a guest post from Garry Glazebrook of UTS (the University of Technology, Sydney).
After listening to Al Gore, Nicholas Stern, Ross Garnaut and Tim Flannery, it is now obvious to most thinking people that we have to address climate change, and soon. It is becoming equally clear that the fall in oil prices over the last few months is only a temporary respite, brought on by a faltering world economy, and that oil prices will likely surge again as soon as the economy recovers. The implication is a need for massive investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable transport. But how to fund such investment without sacrificing our economy, jobs or lifestyles?
Telework Pros and Cons: 28 Reasons To "Telework"--With Data To Back Them Up
Posted by Prof. Goose on July 22, 2008 - 9:30am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: automobile, carbon footprint, climate change, commuting, conservation, four hour workweek, gas prices, global warming, original, telecommuting, telework, traffic congestion, undress4success, work at home, work from home, work-life [list all tags]
This is a guest post by Kate Lister. Kate, along with partner Tom Harnish, runs a web site called Undress4Success.com, which offers advice on work at home jobs, freelance opportunities, and home-based businesses. Kate and Tom are telecommuting researchers and authors; their academic study of the topic is balanced with practical lessons they've learned from over twenty years of home-based work and business ownership. They are currently working on a book, Undress4Success—The Naked Truth About Working From Home for John Wiley & Sons (March 2009). This will be their third book for Wiley.
| The terms telework and telecommuting were coined by Jack Nilles (http://www.jala.com), a former NASA engineer, more than three decades ago. "One of my colleagues at NASA was carrying on about if we can put a man on the moon, we ought to be able to do something about traffic," recalls Jack. So that's what he set out to do. Today, about five million Americans earn a full-time paycheck working at home. Our research shows than another fifty million could. While the concept of telework has been simmering for years, soaring gas prices are fanning the flame such that we may have finally reached a tipping point. |
Lester addresses U.S. governors on energy future, calls for Marshall Plan for energy innovation
Posted by Prof. Goose on July 20, 2008 - 9:00am
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: climate change, coal, energy innovation, natural gas, nuclear, oil, richard k. lester, solar power, wind [list all tags]
This is a transcript of a speech by Richard K. Lester, MIT professor of nuclear science and engineering and director of the Industrial Performance Center, who spoke on 14 JUL 2008 at the annual meeting of the National Governors Association. The prepared version of Lester's speech is below the fold.
Lester is a co-author of recent MIT reports on the future of nuclear energy and coal energy, and he has published widely on the management and control of nuclear technology. He is currently leading the Energy Innovation Pathways Project, an interdisciplinary MIT assessment of the capabilities of the U.S. energy innovation system.
I found the speech interesting, so I thought I would bring it to you. A quote that particularly caught my eye is the following: "And so, to conclude, it is long past time for serious federal leadership on energy innovation. But it is also time to move beyond the Manhattan/Apollo Project metaphor. A better metaphor might be a domestic Marshall Plan for energy innovation. The original Manhattan project involved a relatively small number of people working in secret. The original Marshall Plan took everyone, working together, to rebuild the broken European economy."

k Nation (Jim Kunstler)


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